There are areas in science that are controversial and confusing.  One example is predicting future climate change.  I can assure you about one thing - in the future the Earth will get either hotter or colder!  The problem is figuring out which.

We know from geological evidence that levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases have remained relatively stable for several thousand years.  However, there has been a recent change.  For the past hundred years the level of greenhouse gases has increased, due primarily we believe to elevated rates of fossil fuel burning.  This has led to some dire predictions of global warming.  But whenever we get really cold weather, we hear warnings about a new ice age coming!

The fact is that reliable measurements of average global temperatures are very difficult to obtain.  Even the small increases of about half a degree Celsius in the world's average temperature may be more due to the Earth's natural climate cycle than the result of human activity.

Although the concentration of carbon dioxide is increasing, natural fluctuations in the climate are also to be expected.  Since certainty in science requires we know all the variables involved, accurate predictions are guesses at best, because the number of variables is uncertain and enormous.

So next time you read dire warnings about climate change, remember this is one case where what we don't know may hurt us.

MOVING BEYOND MATTER
by  Christopher Shennan

The weather could serve as a symbol of life's uncertainties.  In spite of sophisticated instruments to determine weather patterns, and what the future may hold, scientists still have to admit to vast areas of ignorance on the subject.  The best we can do is take some precautions of one sort or another, in case the unexpected takes place.

Life is full of uncertainties.  Both good and bad events may lie in our future.  We may fall in love, lose our job, get a promotion, form a lasting friendship, or suffer financial loss.  The best way to deal with the vagaries of life is to establish steady patterns of behaviour - introduce elements we know we can rely on.  We can also make provision for the future - in case an emergency arises.  These act as an anchor when the winds of adversity begin to blow.  Most of us have been quite successful in these endeavours, so we can walk through life with a high degree of confidence.  We've made provision for most eventualities.  But can we ever know for sure?

Our own preparations for the uncertainty of life may not be enough.  Because of our ignorance of what the future may hold, we can't prepare for every eventuality.  In recent years, many lives have been lost in surprise terrorist attacks and sudden natural disasters.  The victims of those occurrences had no way to anticipate and prepare for the event which was about to claim their lives.

If they had, they probably would have done things differently.  They may have kissed their children one more time, called a friend, or forgiven an enemy.  Perhaps a homeless person would have received another meal, or been given shelter one more time.  Because we assume we have lots of time to do those good things, we let the opportunities flutter away like the butterflies of summer.

If we lived with an awareness of the uncertainty of life, as we do with the uncertainty of the weather, perhaps we would be more motivated to deal with those things that we never seem to get around to.